在过去13季的892部新剧中,257部在9月份首播,约占总数的29%。其中99部获得第二季续订,占这257部的39%。通过下面的完整统计表不难看出,9月份首播的新剧数目最多,生存几率也最大。3月份首播的新剧数目其次。过去13季共有116部新剧在3月份播出,但其中仅有33部(28%)获得第二季续订,低于我们昨天提到的32%的新剧生存率。5月份和8月份首播的新剧生存条件最糟糕,生存率仅有可怜的20%。
季 | ABC | CBS | FOX | NBC | UPN | WB | CW | 小计 |
1月 | 5/19 (26%) | 3/14 (21%) | 11/22 (50%) | 6/19 (32%) | 0/5 (0%) | 4/6 (67%) | 1/3 (33%) | 30/88 (34%) |
2月 | 2/6 (33%) | 2/9 (22%) | 3/6 (50%) | 5/15 (33%) | 1/2 (50%) | 0/0 (0%) | 0/1 (0%) | 13/39 (33%) |
3月 | 15/36 (42%) | 3/7 (43%) | 6/29 (21%) | 8/26 (31%) | 0/6 (0%) | 0/9 (0%) | 1/3 (33%) | 33/116 (28%) |
4月 | 5/12 (42%) | 1/7 (14%) | 3/6 (50%) | 4/11 (36%) | 1/5 (20%) | 1/4 (25%) | 1/2 (50%) | 16/47 (34%) |
5月 | 1/7 (14%) | 1/3 (33%) | 2/6 (33%) | 0/2 (0%) | 1/3 (33%) | 0/2 (0%) | 0/2 (0%) | 5/25 (20%) |
6月 | 4/29 (14%) | 1/7 (14%) | 2/13 (15%) | 9/28 (32%) | 0/0 (0%) | 2/3 (67%) | 0/0 (0%) | 18/80 (23%) |
7月 | 2/10 (20%) | 3/7 (43%) | 5/14 (36%) | 5/12 (42%) | 0/2 (0%) | 3/5 (60%) | 0/1 (0%) | 18/51 (35%) |
8月 | 5/18 (28%) | 1/2 (50%) | 2/11 (18%) | 0/7 (0%) | 1/4 (25%) | 0/1 (0%) | 0/1 (0%) | 9/44 (20%) |
9月 | 19/51 (37%) | 31/58 (53%) | 10/37 (27%) | 18/57 (32%) | 8/18 (44%) | 7/20 (35%) | 6/16 (38%) | 99/257 (39%) |
10月 | 9/27 (33%) | 5/15 (33%) | 3/12 (25%) | 8/19 (42%) | 0/3 (0%) | 7/16 (44%) | 1/7 (14%) | 33/99 (33%) |
11月 | 1/10 (10%) | 0/1 (0%) | 5/13 (38%) | 1/3 (33%) | 0/0 (0%) | 0/0 (0%) | 0/0 (0%) | 7/27 (26%) |
12月 | 3/6 (50%) | 0/0 (0%) | 2/3 (67%) | 2/8 (25%) | 0/0 (0%) | 0/1 (0%) | 0/1 (0%) | 7/19 (37%) |
合计 | 71/231 (31%) | 51/130 (39%) | 54/172 (31%) | 66/207 (32%) | 12/48 (25%) | 24/67 (36%) | 10/37 (27%) | 288/892 (32%) |
这些数据其实很好理解:9月份是传统的电视播出季开始的月份,电视网投入大量人力物力财力进行宣传造势,新剧的知晓度也最高。5月份是电视播出季的结束月,观众已经十分疲倦了,没有多少兴趣去看新剧;而8月份处在传统电视播出季开始之前,观众的注意力大都被他们熟悉并喜爱的剧集吸引过去了。7月和12月首播的新剧生存率仅低于9月,7月正好处于夏季「正中间」,而12月处于冬春转换期(断档期),因此能够积聚足够的人气。
当然,不同电视网的情形是不同的。Fox9月的新剧生存率很糟糕,但1月却很好——因为那时《美国偶像》回归了,能够带活一批剧集。CBS则是典型的「9月型」电视网,9月的新剧生存率高达53%。